by Stavros Kourtalis

The European Parliament elections on 4-7 June 2009 will take place against the backdrop of economic and political turmoil. By the time voters go to the ballot box, many of them will have felt the consequences of the financial and economic crisis first-hand.

Will any of this have an impact on the European elections in June? While it is difficult to predict precisely how it will affect the turnout and outcome of these elections, one of the most worrying trends in EU politics has been the widening gap between the ever-decreasing number of citizens who bother to go to the polls on the occasion of the continent-wide elections for the European Parliament and the ever-increasing powers of the assembly.

While the Parliament has constantly strengthened its prerogatives in each Treaty reform since Maastricht, its “input” legitimacy has simultaneously diminished: voter turnout was particularly low in 2004, especially in the new Member States which had officially joined the Union just a few weeks earlier. Why, then, given the increasing power and relevance of the European Parliament, is voter turnout so low at European elections? There are a number of factors to consider:

1. European elections are still fought mainly on national issues. Most academics – and more crucially, politicians themselves - actually consider them to be "second-order national elections".
2. There is, as yet, no real European political sphere to speak of. In effect, the vast majority of European voters remain unaware of the policy issues and fights that are taking place at the European level. As a result, the national level tends to step in as a substitute. To make matters worse, it appears that voters use European elections as a means to punish their governments mid-term, attesting to the weak politicisation of European integration in most EU countries.
3. Politicians therefore tend to base their campaigns on national issues and seek recognition for things that matter to their national parties and constituencies. This is also due to the way the elections are organised as the election lists are determined according to national or regional parties.
4. There is a widespread perception among voters that their voice will not make a big difference. Many do not feel an incentive to go to the polls because they do not see direct consequences in terms of power-sharing at EU level.
5. Essentially, voters do not feel they understand what the Parliament does, let alone what it does for them, and they stay at home on Election Day as a result. A recent Eurobarometer poll indicated that EU citizens largely consider the European Parliament to play an increasingly important role within the Union, but the majority also admit that they are not well-informed about its role and functions. For example, 73% of the people interviewed admitted that they feel fairly or very badly informed about the Parliament's activities. And only 10% of those surveyed were actually aware that the next elections will take place in 2009.
6. Consequently, lack of interest in European elections is rife among media professionals who find it difficult to "sell their story" to editors, particularly to the national media and television.

For all these different but convergent reasons, the forthcoming European elections are likely to remain a collection of 27 separate "national" campaigns. The current worldwide economic downturn will be a common theme everywhere, but coupled with distinctly national debates over who is to blame for it, and how to respond.

While a variety of factors are expected to further affect the turnout and outcome in individual EU countries (a referendum here, a local or even national election there), another opportunity to promote a cross-national discourse and campaign will be missed – despite the last-ditch call from some leading Europeans for the European parties to "nominate" their candidates for President of the European Commission and engage in a EU-wide competitive campaign capable of making the vote more significant and appealing to the citizens.

As a result, the next European Parliament is likely to suffer from a similar divergence between the assembly’s powers and its public support – and possibly an even wider one, if turnout keeps plummeting and, in a few months’ time, the Lisbon Treaty provisions do enter into force.

In terms of "input" legitimacy, the hope is that the opportunity missed this year to launch a truly European debate will not be missed again in 2014. In terms of "output" legitimacy, the post-enlargement adjustment and learning process of the past five years should help to raise it significantly over the course of the next parliamentary term. If so, the long-standing "accountability deficit" that affects virtually all EU institutions may at last begin to be tackled effectively.